So, New Orleans and Coastal Louisiana Have Passed the Point of "No Return"
Three reactions to this sobering reality
Last week hit me with a bracing article by Oliver Milman in the Guardian.
The headline:
“Point of No return’: New Orleans Relocation Must Start Now Due to Sea Level, Study Finds
The article is centered on a perspective paper published in the journal Nature Sustainability.
The lede:
The process of relocating people from New Orleans should start immediately, as the city has reached a “point of no return” that will see it surrounded by the ocean within decades due to the climate crisis, a stark new study has concluded.
Rising seas are just one of the threats to southern Louisiana. Add to that stronger hurricanes (also caused by climate breakdown) and the destructive practices of the oil and gas industry which may be responsible for more than half of all coastal land loss.
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The Guardian article continues;
This scenario makes the region the “most physically vulnerable coastal zone in the world”, the researchers state, and requires immediate action to prepare a smooth transition for people away from New Orleans, which has a population of about 360,000 people, to safer ground.
Climate resilience is my jam, so, I got lots of questions about this, not just from lawyers and journalists, but from neighbors and friends too. The article hit a chord, and its tone is both menacing and true. I hope it starts a lot of conversations.
Here are three brief reactions:
1. This sucks, but the facts aren’t new.
The prognosis for southern Louisiana has been basically the same for several years. As a friend of mine said after seeing the article, “The only thing that surprised me was that Miami’s not tanking first.”
Törnqvist and his coauthors are very up front about their purpose. They are not delivering new facts; they are delivering a compelling policy perspective. Their policy take, by the way, is persuasive, and they should be listened to.
2. If you don’t live in Louisiana, it still sucks.
There are two levels of extra-jurisdictional suckage.
First level: even if you have no interest in southern Louisiana, its existence and productivity is probably important to you, especially if you live in the United States. The port system here handles more tonnage than any other in country. Half of U.S. petroleum refining happens here. Incidentally (and I’m saying this with love), part of your inexpensive shipping, cheap gas, and bountiful catch have come at the expense of what state and federal leaders have inflicted on this state for more than a hundred years. We’re all in this together.
Second level: You might live in Miami. Or Tampa, or Norfolk, or Galveston, or one of a dozen more sizable cities on eroding shoreline. I’m not saying those cities will disappear. But there are definitely significant sub-regions whose populations (of hundreds of thousands of people) will need to relocate as coasts erode and seas rise.
This is why it is so important to pay attention to southern Louisiana and help us get climate adaptation right.
3. Maybe we are all terminal cases.
I’m borrowing from The World According to Garp, but stay with me. My point is that even if we know that a thing (a relationship, a glacier, a beloved city) can’t last forever doesn’t mean that you stop caring for it now. It is better to protect the coast and prolong livability in New Orleans than to not do that—so long as we are honest about the facts and dutiful in preparing for the inevitable relocations.
Some perspective: According to climate scientist James Hansen, within the next two hundred years, the seas could rise as much at 20 feet! That could mean abandoning large swaths of Los Angeles, Boston, and New York City. But it doesn’t mean cutting them off today.
Summing Up
The facts in the Guardian article aren’t new, but the piece should re-focus our attention on the true work. Instead, what are my state’s lawmakers arguing about this week? A plan to seize the decommissioned Confederate statues in New Orleans and display them in other parts of the state. We can do better that.
Let’s take the higher ground.
SOUNDINGS
Every time I read anything written by Rob Verchick, be it one of his books (I've read two of them), or his statements while he was head of the Center for Progressive Research, or now , one of Substack posts, my reaction is the same.
I've just been well educated and I've also just been given reason to hope.
I just spent 4 days in the Mississippi delta (Venice). Completely new seascape for me. What a different world! I was actually pleased that the fishing was quite good, when the weather was not bad. But it is easy to see what a fragile environment it is and how vulnerable it is to weather and sea level rise.